AGP Executive Report

Colombia Politics & Markets: A new AtlasIntel poll puts far-right Abelardo de la Espriella ahead of Ivan Cepeda by about 7.8 points in Colombia’s presidential runoff, while Cepeda escalates the campaign with plans to file complaints alleging terrorism financing and illicit enrichment against De la Espriella. Monetary Debate: De la Espriella’s dollarization push is back in focus, but he now signals it won’t be part of his agenda due to constitutional and legal hurdles. Macroeconomy: The World Bank cut its 2026 growth forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean to 2.2%, citing weaker global demand and energy-related uncertainty; Colombia is still projected to grow 2.3% on oil support. Business & Tourism: Bogotá launched a “Vive San Victorino” tourism route to reframe the historic market district as an experience for visitors, not just a quick stop. World Cup & Sports Economy: FIFA’s 48-team World Cup kicks off today across the US, Canada and Mexico, with Colombia set to play in Mexico City and Guadalajara; meanwhile, Bank of America expands its Sports with Us youth program in host countries.

Colombia–U.S. Politics: President Donald Trump pledged “full support” to Colombia’s runoff candidate Abelardo de la Espriella, promising economic and security help if he wins—an overt signal that raises the stakes for the campaign. Labor & Business Costs: Colombia’s labor reform is showing up in hiring behavior: more than 8,000 companies reportedly paid fines instead of taking on SENA apprentices, highlighting how compliance rules can shift costs onto penalties. Human Rights Law: Colombia passed a landmark bill banning female genital mutilation, with Indigenous women credited for pushing the measure through Congress. Trade & Logistics: Canadian Cargojet Airways is set to start weekly non-scheduled cargo flights in Guyana, linking routes through Medellín and Miami as the country’s air-freight demand grows. World Cup Economy: Colombia is expected to send about 91,000 travelers to World Cup host countries, boosting international travel and related spending during June–July.

Colombia Politics: Leftist presidential hopeful Iván Cepeda told Reuters he will accept the June 21 runoff result even if it goes against him, but warned he will urge peaceful protests if rights aren’t upheld, as the contest pits him against right-wing lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella. Petro in the spotlight: A separate move proposes suspending President Gustavo Petro until June 21 over alleged electoral interference, putting his renewable-energy-backed crypto plans and broader agenda in limbo. Business & Investment: Tecnoglass declared a Q2 2026 dividend of $0.15 per share, payable July 31, as the Barranquilla-based glass and windows maker continues to serve North America. Sports & Economy: With the 2026 World Cup starting June 11, Colombia’s football economy buzz is rising too—Billboard highlighted Bogotá’s Movistar Arena and Medellín’s Atanasio Girardot Stadium, while Shakira’s tour performance featured in its global Boxscore report. Security & Human Impact: Colombia’s foreign ministry reported 173 deaths and 670 missing tied to the Russia-Ukraine war, underscoring the country’s role as a source of foreign fighters.

Colombia’s Cattle Traceability Law: Colombia has enacted a landmark rule requiring cattle tracking and deforestation-free beef supply chains, aiming to close loopholes that let ranching tied to forest loss enter legitimate markets. Runoff Election Tensions: Abelardo de la Espriella urged prosecutors to investigate alleged voter coercion by illegal armed groups in municipalities where Iván Cepeda won large shares, as Colombia heads toward the June 21 runoff. Campaign Branding Setback: A Bogotá court ordered De la Espriella’s campaign to stop using patriotic and football-related symbols, including the national team jersey and slogans, after a tutela action raised equality and nondiscrimination concerns. Drug Policy and Security: The U.S. DOJ filed suit to revoke citizenship of Manuel Rocha, a Colombian-born diplomat exposed as a Cuban espionage asset, while Colombia-focused security coverage highlighted the growing use of FPV drone tactics by armed groups. World Cup Watch: With the 2026 tournament starting June 11 across the U.S., Canada and Mexico, Colombia is framed as a “dark horse,” even as U.S. travel restrictions complicate fan access for some countries.

Colombia Runoff Politics: Iván Cepeda heads into Colombia’s presidential runoff with a tight, cash-strapped campaign, saying he needs at least 2.5 million more votes and betting on a late push in Bogotá and Barranquilla. Security & Peace Talks: FARC dissidents led by “Ivan Mordisco” extended a unilateral ceasefire for the runoff, setting a June 10–13 pause in offensive actions. US Citizenship Crackdown: The U.S. DOJ moved to denaturalize 17 people, including South Florida cases tied to fraud and sexual abuse allegations, signaling a tougher stance on citizenship applications. Payments & Retail Growth: dLocal expanded BNPL Fuse across Latin America and other emerging markets, adding eligibility screening and refund orchestration aimed at boosting merchant approvals and conversion. Data Infrastructure & Jobs: Aligned Data Centers earned Great Place To Work certification again in the U.S., Brazil, and Colombia, highlighting workforce development for digital infrastructure. Mining Update: Orosur reported new gold mineralized zones at its APTA prospect in Colombia’s Mid-Cauca belt, with follow-up areas identified after drilling results. World Cup Business Buzz: Hard Rock launched its “All Teams. One Place.” campaign with Messi ahead of the 2026 tournament, while Colombia is framed as a “dark horse” in Group K previews.

Colombia Politics: Progressive presidential candidate Iván Cepeda says he has reports of a “fabricated controlled self-sabotage” plot by rival Abelardo De la Espriella to influence the June 21 runoff, and says he will send the information to Colombia’s Attorney General and the National Protection Unit. Justice & Security: Colombia’s Supreme Court upheld the 28-year sentence of Santiago Uribe Vélez, brother of former President Álvaro Uribe, for conspiracy to commit murder tied to the paramilitary “Twelve Apostles” death squad. Trade & Investment: Italy’s agri-food firms are set to take part in Bogotá’s Alimentec / Anuga Select Colombia 2026, with Italian imports into Colombia rising 24% in 2025. Business Real Estate: Bogotá is ranked Latin America’s most cost-competitive city for premium office fit-outs, while Buenos Aires is among the priciest. Retail & Consumer Goods: Colombian chocolate brand Fatso expands further in the UK, adding Whole Foods Market listings. Global Policy Watch: The U.S. DOJ moves to strip citizenship from 17 people accused of fraud or hiding serious crimes during naturalization.

Colombia Investment Pulse: Foreign direct investment in Colombia rose to $3.8B in Q1 2026, up 34.4% year-on-year, signaling renewed investor interest even as overall inflows remain below prior years. Colombia Business & Residency Deals: Energy Today Corp and QED Connect announced a Colombia-focused investment and residency initiative with Valhalla Wulff Investment, tying capital to mining, eco-friendly real estate, agriculture and tourism (subject to securities and immigration rules). World Cup Cost Pressure in Miami: A SeatPick.com study says Miami is the second-most expensive 2026 host city for tickets, with an average price of $2,094. World Cup Watch in Colombia’s Group: FIFA confirmed Ghana won’t wear its white home kit in Group L, with match color rules driving alternative kit choices. U.S. Immigration Enforcement Funding: The U.S. Senate approved a $70B package for immigration enforcement, boosting ICE and Border Patrol capacity. Sustainability Spotlight: Premios Verdes released its 2026 ranking of 500 socio-environmental projects; Colombia leads with 112 entries.

Colombia Politics: President Gustavo Petro says Colombia’s runoff vote is at risk after alleging fraud in the first round, while rival Abelardo de la Espriella leads and Iván Cepeda moves to court over alleged AI-driven defamation and vote-buying. World Cup Build-Up: Colombia’s final warm-up vs Jordan is set in the U.S., with broadcasters Gol Caracol, Ditu-Fútbol RCN and Canal RCN app carrying the match as Néstor Lorenzo finalizes the squad. Business & Markets: XS.com wrapped its Latin America roadshow with a private Medellín event for clients, introducing brokers and traders, pairing market education with partner incentives after multiple regional awards. Trade & Energy: Colombia ranks among top U.S. crude suppliers (167,000 bpd in the latest week), as Iraq’s imports rebound to 43,000 bpd after a prior lull. Security & Society: Colombia marked the first anniversary of the attack on Senator Miguel Uribe Turbay with masses and tributes, renewing debate over safety for public figures.

Colombia Election Watch: Left-wing presidential candidate Iván Cepeda says he will investigate far-right rival Abelardo de la Espriella over alleged vote buying and irregular campaign finance, and he’s pushing for a debate ahead of the June 21 second round. Dollarization Politics: Abelardo de la Espriella’s campaign is reigniting Colombia’s dollarization debate, with Petro pushing back as the race tightens. Macroeconomy: Colombia’s inflation climbed again in May, adding pressure as voters weigh cost-of-living concerns. Security & Conflict: At least 48 people were reported dead in clashes between illegal armed groups in Colombia, underscoring ongoing violence risks. Business & Services: OnCallColombia launched direct FBI electronic submissions in Colombia, aiming to speed up background-check workflows for Americans facing deadlines. Climate & Sustainability: TIKA showcased a Colombia waste-recycling project as part of global zero-waste efforts at Istanbul’s Zero Waste Festival. World Cup Business Angle: Colombia’s World Cup economy is being linked to new retail and delivery demand, while Group K coverage spotlights Colombia’s chances alongside Portugal and DR Congo.

FBI Background Checks, Faster: OnCallColombia says it’s the first provider in Colombia to submit FBI Identity History checks electronically, cutting out the old mail-in fingerprint-card workflow—aimed at visa, residency, job, and licensing deadlines. Colombia Inflation Watch: DANE reports May inflation at 5.84% y/y (0.47% m/m), with housing and utilities driving the latest pressure, keeping the central bank’s 3% target in focus. Election Stakes for Economy & Energy: With Colombia’s June 21 runoff between Iván Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella, analysts warn policy choices could reshape Amazon protection and the pace of fossil-fuel development. Dollarization Sparks Political Fight: De la Espriella revived Colombia’s dollarization debate; Petro rejected it outright, reigniting the fight over monetary sovereignty. Security and Humanitarian Risk: Clashes between illegal armed groups in Guaviare left at least 48 dead and displaced communities, underscoring instability that can spill into local commerce. US Forced-Labor Tariffs Loom: The USTR lists Nigeria among 60 economies that could face new 12.5% duties over forced-labor enforcement gaps—another reminder of trade risk for regional exporters. World Cup Economy, Real-World Costs: Mexico City authorities seized $1.3m in counterfeit World Cup goods, as fans chase cheaper jerseys amid high official prices.

Reusable Packaging Push: Colombia-based PR3 unveiled a new global symbol to mark reusable packaging and reuse systems, saying reuse can cut single-use packaging production by up to 90% and emissions by up to 80%. Inflation Watch: DANE reports Colombia’s May inflation rose to 5.84% year-on-year (0.47% monthly), with housing, utilities and fuels driving the increase—raising pressure on the cost of living. Security Update: At least 48 people were killed in clashes between illegal armed groups in Guaviare, with authorities investigating whether Ivan Mordisco directly took part. Diplomatic Tension: President Gustavo Petro accused the U.S. of aligning with Colombia’s drug traffickers after Trump endorsed far-right runoff candidate Abelardo de la Espriella, escalating a sovereignty dispute ahead of June 21. Politics & Markets: The runoff is also framed as a potential pivot for Amazon protection and fossil-fuel policy, as Colombia weighs continuity vs. a tougher anti-crime agenda.

Colombia Runoff Politics: President Gustavo Petro says U.S. President Donald Trump is intervening in Colombia’s June 21 election after far-right outsider Abelardo de la Espriella won the first round; Petro argues Washington is backing “narco-para” politics while human-rights groups warn organized crime has expanded under his administration. Oil & Gas Outlook: Analysts say a pro-business win by de la Espriella could reopen Colombia’s oil and gas sector after years of decline in production and uncertainty over new exploration, while reforms would still face hurdles. World Cup Meets Business: In Colombia, brands are leaning into World Cup fever by partnering with national team stars, including a high-profile James Rodríguez eyewear collaboration. Stablecoins & Payments: Oobit reports USDT dominates stablecoin usage across Latin America, with Colombia at about 98% share, highlighting cash-like crypto demand as Oobit expands local operations. Bioeconomy Training: IICA and the Latin American Bioeconomy Network launched BioSinergia 2026 webinars to turn biological resources into productive, inclusive projects across the region. Security & Trade Risk: The U.S. move to label Brazil’s PCC and CV terrorist groups takes effect, raising concerns about tourism, investment, and financial-system impacts across the region.

Colombia Health Cooperation: Colombia’s Health Minister Tyron Boekhoudt met Curaçao and Clínica Colsanitas (Grupo Keralty) to tackle Curaçao’s long specialized-care waiting lists, focusing on specialist support, knowledge exchange, and digital/quality practices. Colombia Holiday Boost: Colombia added a new annual public holiday for the Virgin of Chiquinquirá, set for July 9 (observed Monday July 13 in 2026), a move that could extend travel and retail demand mid-year. World Cup Ticketing & Costs: FIFA canceled free 2026 World Cup tickets due to a website error affecting about 60 fans, while broader criticism continues over high prices and access concerns. World Cup Watch Parties: Cities and venues are rolling out community viewing plans, including Boston’s free neighborhood watch parties tied to FIFA events. Energy Shock Theme: Global markets are adjusting to the Strait of Hormuz risk, with analysts warning of higher logistics and insurance costs that can feed into food and growth pressures. Market Forecasts (Global, Business Angle): New research reports project big growth through 2033 in batteries, shipping containers, and carbon credits, signaling continued investment interest in logistics, electrification, and climate-linked finance.

Forced-Labor Tariff Risk: The U.S. Office of the Trade Representative says Colombia failed to effectively prohibit and enforce imports made with forced labor, setting up potential Section 301 tariff remedies that could hit exporters and supply chains. Colombia Runoff Politics: A judge ordered far-right presidential candidate Abelardo de la Espriella not to wear the Colombia national team jersey during his campaign, adding to a highly charged election season ahead of the June runoff. Paramilitary Accountability: Colombia’s Supreme Court upheld a final 28-year-plus sentence for Santiago Uribe Vélez, brother of former President Álvaro Uribe, over his role in creating and financing the paramilitary group “Los doce apóstoles.” Trade & Food Markets: Corn prices stayed under pressure as USDA reported a private export sale of 115,000 MT of corn to Colombia for 2026/27, while broader soybean and corn demand signals remained mixed. Environment: Colombia permanently protected the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta as a Renewable Natural Resources Reserve (“Heart of the World”), covering over 1.5 million hectares and restricting future extractive activity.

Colombia Runoff Politics: Colombia’s governing bloc paused its bid to reform the 1991 Constitution via a National Constituent Assembly, stopping signature collection 17 days before the June 21 presidential runoff—an effort aimed at building consensus as Senator Iván Cepeda and his running mate Aída Quilcué become the focus. Healthcare Cooperation: Curaçao’s Health Minister Tyron Boekhoudt met Colombia’s health officials and visited Fundación Santa Fe and CTIC oncology center, highlighting faster access to specialized care in Colombia via Curaçao’s Social Insurance Bank referrals. UN Security Council: Kyrgyzstan won a non-permanent UN Security Council seat for the first time, while Germany failed to secure another term—an outcome reflecting widening geopolitical divisions. Fintech & Payments: Revolut’s CTO Vlad Yatsenko is exiting July 1 as fintech C-suite churn continues; Nubank and Adyen also announced leadership transitions. Corporate Finance (LatAm): Finacity upsized Laboratorios Sanfer’s receivables securitization to MXN 1.5 billion, boosting liquidity for expansion across 26 countries. Energy/Trade Context: U.S. proposed new Section 301 tariffs on imports from 60 economies over forced-labor concerns, raising the risk of higher consumer prices across supply chains.

Colombia-US Politics: President Donald Trump endorsed Colombia’s conservative runoff candidate Abelardo de la Espriella, calling him “Smart, Strong, and Tough” and praising a platform focused on growth, jobs, trade, and a tougher line on crime and drugs ahead of the June 21 election. Business & Markets: Bancolombia’s NowCast says Colombia’s economy is accelerating in 2Q26, projecting 2.6% year-over-year GDP growth, with activity improving versus 1Q. Elections & Governance: The National Business Council said it will not promote dialogue with political sectors that question election results without verifiable proof, after both sides disputed the first-round outcome. Trade Compliance: The U.S. Trade Representative flagged Colombia among economies failing to effectively enforce bans on forced-labor imports under Section 301, setting up potential tariff action. Telecom Infrastructure: DIDWW expanded SIP trunking to Colombia, adding enterprise voice connectivity across 57 countries. Tourism & Shipping: Colombia’s cruise season is surging, with 174,371 passengers and 103 port calls in 1Q26, and itineraries spreading beyond Cartagena to places like Providencia and Leticia.