AGP Executive Report

Agribusiness: Peru’s Camposol is investing in Mexican avocado grower Jaliscavo, adding 12 grower partners, 44 orchards and a packing facility with 48,000-tonne annual capacity. The deal complements Camposol’s production in Colombia and Peru and aims to strengthen supply for North American buyers. Regional Outlook: The IMF urged Latin American governments to rein in rising public debt and improve productivity while financing conditions remain favorable. It forecast regional growth of 2.3% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, but warned that current tailwinds may not last. Trade Reset: Colombia restored its free-trade deal with Israel as it opened an embassy in Jerusalem, reversing the previous government’s break in ties. Foreign ministers from 19 countries condemned the embassy move, adding diplomatic tension to the shift. Markets and Prices: Colombia’s inflation rose to 6.29% in September, led by services, while the peso fell 2.9% amid a stronger US dollar and an unexpected central-bank rate hike.

Agribusiness: Camposol is investing in Mexican avocado grower Jaliscavo to diversify sourcing and extend harvest windows, complementing its own production in Colombia and Peru. Trade: Colombia reopened its embassy in Jerusalem and restored its free-trade agreement with Israel, marking a reset in commercial ties. Inflation: September inflation climbed to 6.29%, driven by services, while rising food prices and El Niño are adding pressure on household budgets. Energy: The government warned that Colombia could face an energy shortfall by April 2027, raising concerns for businesses and consumers. Logistics: Puerto Antioquia has launched a weekly maritime route linking Colombia with Asia, adding a new channel for trade.

Economic Pressure: Thousands joined Colombia’s first national strike against President Abelardo de la Espriella, protesting austerity and economic reforms as Congress considers the 2027 budget. Trade & Investment: Exotic-fruit exports rose 12.5% to US$49.1 million in January–August, but gulupa accounted for nearly 93% of sales. Trump again signaled he may lift tariffs on Colombian exports; meanwhile, officials opened talks with Mazda on restarting vehicle assembly, and Puerto Antioquia launched a weekly route to Asia. Growth & Markets: The IMF expects Colombia’s growth to trail the regional average. The peso fell 2.9% as the dollar strengthened and the central bank surprised markets with a rate hike. Coffee production dropped 15% to 12.65 million bags, while the mango harvest is forecast to fall 30%. Skills & Energy: A renewed US$25 million COLFUTURO partnership aims to triple overseas graduate-study beneficiaries to 3,000 in 2027. The government also warned of a possible energy shortfall by April 2027.

Energy Risks: Colombia’s deputy energy minister warned the country could face electricity shortfalls from April 2027 if El Niño drains reservoirs and delayed generation projects fail to come online; nationwide outages are not inevitable, but the warning raises concerns for businesses and industry. Economic Outlook: Inflation climbed to 6.29% in September, the peso fell 2.9%, and the IMF sees Colombia’s growth lagging the regional average. Trade and Investment: Colombia and Israel restored their free-trade agreement as diplomatic ties resumed; separately, Bogotá is discussing a possible return of Mazda vehicle assembly after 12 years. Agriculture: Coffee production fell 15% in the 2025/26 season to 12.65 million bags, putting pressure on a key export sector. Protests: Unions and social groups demonstrated against the government’s economic and social policies, including over labor rights and the minimum wage.

Energy & Climate: Colombia’s diesel and gasoline subsidy phaseout is intended to reduce public spending and support cleaner energy, but its social effects remain contested. Cities are also preparing for El Niño risks to water, infrastructure and food supplies. Trade & Payments: Puerto Antioquia has launched a weekly maritime route connecting Colombia with Asia, while MTS added QR-code payments in Colombia and Argentina. Economic Outlook: The IMF expects Colombia’s growth to trail the Latin American average. September inflation reached 6.29%, driven by services, and the peso fell 2.9% as the dollar strengthened and the central bank surprised with a rate hike. Industry & Jobs: Coffee output dropped 15% to 12.65 million bags in 2025/26. Talks with Mazda could bring vehicle assembly back after 12 years, while 53.5% of young people reportedly struggle to find a first job for lack of experience. Two-thirds of Colombian software firms use AI. Oil & Mining: High tanker costs are weighing on Colombian heavy-crude prices; Mineros raised its 2026 gold-production guidance after strong third-quarter output.

Trade Links: Puerto Antioquia has launched a weekly CMA CGM route connecting Colombia with Asian ports, adding a new export and import option with an estimated 34–36-day transit from Asia. President Trump also signaled he may lift tariffs on Colombian exports, though no details were given. Economic Outlook: The IMF expects Colombia’s economy to grow 2.2% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027, slightly below the regional average. Inflation reached 6.29% in September, while the peso fell 2.9% amid a stronger dollar and an unexpected central-bank rate hike. Industry: Colombia is discussing a possible Mazda assembly return after 12 years. Coffee production fell 15% in the 2025/26 season to 12.65 million bags. Business and Technology: Two-thirds of Colombian software firms now use AI, according to a Fedesoft survey, with productivity the leading motivation. Public Finances: The Vice Presidency says staffing and contracting cuts will save about COP 1 billion a month under the government’s austerity plan.

Inflation and Peso: Colombia’s annual inflation rose to 6.29% in September, driven largely by services. The peso fell 2.9% against the dollar, closing at 3,307.50 per dollar as a stronger U.S. currency weighed on the market. Auto Industry: The government has opened talks with Mazda on bringing vehicle assembly back to Colombia, potentially creating opportunities for local parts suppliers; the automaker has made no decision. Energy: Industry groups say Colombia’s unconventional formations may hold prospective oil and gas resources far above proven reserves, but drilling is needed to establish what can be produced. Corporate Deals: Billionaire Jaime Gilinski is positioned to become GeoPark’s majority shareholder through a stake initially valued at about $515 million, exchanged for rights to develop a Venezuelan oil field. Trade and Travel: Turkish Airlines will sell tickets connecting international passengers to eight Colombian cities on LATAM’s domestic routes. Agriculture: Colombia’s coffee output fell 15% in the 2025/26 season to 12.65 million bags, as adverse weather and lower yields hit production.

Auto Industry: Renault plans to use its South Korean plant to export vehicles to Colombia, citing the countries’ free-trade agreement. Colombia is also in talks with Mazda about a possible return to local assembly. Transport and Security: A car bomb at a toll booth in Cauca injured at least three people, underscoring risks to travel and freight on the Pan-American Highway. Digital Economy: Colombia’s software and IT-services exports topped $2 billion for the first time; the broader digital sector generated $2.463 billion in overseas sales and employs 406,000 people. Agriculture: Coffee production fell 15% in 2025/26 to 12.65 million bags, a setback for a major export industry. Jobs: Colombia had the OECD’s highest share of 15-to-24-year-olds not in employment, education or training, at 25.57%.

Mining Investment: Azerbaijan’s state-owned AzerGold is exploring potential mining projects and investment partnerships in Colombia, following talks with the country’s ambassador. Auto Industry: Colombia is discussing a possible return of Mazda vehicle assembly, 12 years after the company exited; talks signal interest in reviving local production, but no deal has been announced. Trade and Logistics: Emirates is adding seven weekly cargo flights across Brazil, Argentina, Colombia and Ecuador, expanding air freight capacity in the region. Coffee: Colombia’s 2025/26 coffee output fell 15% to 12.65 million bags, a setback for a key export industry. Environmental Risk: An Interpol operation linked 161 companies across several continents to an investigation into Amazon forest clearing; in Colombia, the case involves more than 52,000 hectares of protected forest and alleged permit fraud.

Cargo Links: Emirates SkyCargo added a weekly freighter to Bogotá as part of seven new South American flights, expanding air-freight capacity for Colombian exporters. Auto Investment: Colombia held talks with Mazda on a possible return to local vehicle assembly, including a plant and local suppliers; any investment remains subject to the company’s review and feasibility studies. Coffee: Production fell 15% in the 2025–26 cycle to 12.65 million bags, a setback for one of the country’s key export industries. Prices and Growth: Inflation rose again in September, while Colombia faces hurdles in meeting commitments tied to a possible IMF lending deal. Air Travel: Arajet carried 35,413 passengers to and from Colombia in September; Bogotá was its top route, with 18,413 travelers.

Digital Banking: Nubank has begun its U.S. expansion with savings, credit-card and remittance products, initially serving customers through a partner bank as it seeks its own license. The Brazilian fintech already operates in Colombia. Regional Trade: Panama declared an emergency after a 7.7-magnitude earthquake, but the Panama Canal remained open, limiting immediate disruption to shipping. Coffee: Colombia’s 2025/26 coffee output fell 15% to 12.65 million bags, a setback for a major export industry. Energy: Colombia suspended electricity exports to Ecuador over domestic supply concerns, highlighting pressure on regional power flows. Growth Outlook: The World Bank expects Colombia’s economy to outpace Brazil and Mexico in 2026. Oil and Gas: Gran Tierra shareholders approved the sale of the company’s Colombian and Ecuadorian businesses.

Regional Infrastructure: Panama declared an emergency after a 7.7-magnitude earthquake damaged homes, schools and roads. The Panama Canal continued operating normally, though Tocumen airport briefly halted flights. Coffee: Colombia’s production fell 15% to 12.65 million bags, a setback for a key export sector. Energy Trade: Colombia suspended power exports to Ecuador over domestic supply concerns. Corporate Deals: Gran Tierra Energy shareholders approved the sale of its Colombian and Ecuadorian businesses. Growth Outlook: The World Bank expects Colombia’s economy to grow faster than Brazil’s and Mexico’s in 2026.

Regional Trade: A 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck Panama, damaging buildings and disrupting power and flights, but the Panama Canal and Cobre Panama mine continued operating normally. Coffee: Colombia’s 2025/26 harvest fell 15% to 12.65 million bags, while coffee exports dropped 12%, a setback for a sector supporting hundreds of thousands of families. Infrastructure: Bogotá’s Metro Line 1 project faces a dispute between the city company and its supervisor, which says acceleration measures drove more than 25.2 billion pesos in claims; construction was 83.73% complete at September’s end. Economic Outlook: Colombia’s inflation rose again in September, while the country faces hurdles in meeting commitments under a possible IMF lending deal. Agriculture: Colombia is seeking Israeli irrigation technology and water-management expertise for drought-prone La Guajira, aiming to lift farm productivity and expand dairy and poultry production.

Energy Deal: Gran Tierra shareholders approved the US$1.33 billion sale of its Colombian and Ecuadorian businesses to France’s Maurel & Prom. Gran Tierra expects about US$315 million in net cash proceeds and says the deal would leave it debt-free. Tourism: Medellín hosts Colombia’s first Electric Daisy Carnival this weekend, bringing a major international festival to the city and a potential boost for visitor spending. Digital Access: Starlink’s terms point to a planned Community Wi-Fi program in Colombia, where local hosts could sell flexible access passes. Regional Power Trade: Colombia has ended electricity transfers to Ecuador, halting a cross-border supply link. Economic Outlook: September inflation rose again as Colombia faces hurdles in meeting commitments under a possible IMF lending deal.

Markets: Brazil’s post-election rally has pushed its five-year credit-risk spread to 108 basis points, below Colombia’s 164. Colombia retains an investment-grade rating from Moody’s but is rated speculative grade by Fitch and S&P. Energy: Parex Resources reported third-quarter production of 83,259 barrels of oil equivalent per day and maintained its 2026 guidance. It expects a November partnership with Ecopetrol to add about 7,000 barrels per day. Colombia has also suspended electricity exports to Ecuador, citing shortage risks. Economic Outlook: September inflation continued to rise, while Colombia faces hurdles in meeting commitments under a possible IMF lending deal. Fenalco is still challenging the 23.7% minimum-wage increase for 2026 as negotiations over next year’s wage begin. Fintech: Latin America’s fintech sector has grown 340% in six years. Colombia, Brazil and Mexico account for about 57% of the region’s fintech firms, with payments, remittances and lending among the main areas of activity.

Fiscal Outlook: Colombia is seeking an $8 billion to $20 billion IMF backstop as it confronts falling tax revenue and rising debt. The government forecasts deficits of 7.2% of GDP this year and 9.4% in 2027, but meeting loan conditions could prove difficult. Prices and Pay: Inflation rose again in September, while business group Fenalco is still challenging the 23.7% minimum-wage increase for 2026 as talks begin on next year’s pay. Energy Costs: A fuel-price freeze could cost more than $3 billion annually, while Colombia has suspended electricity exports to Ecuador over domestic supply concerns. Trade and Growth: Emirates SkyCargo reported an 18% rise in Colombian export volumes, and the World Bank expects Colombia to outpace Brazil and Mexico in 2026.